NIMET’S 2026 SCP PREDICTS LONGER-THAN-NORMAL RAINFALL, WARNS FARMERS AGAINST EARLY CULTIVATION

By Iyojo Ameh

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, has announced that normal annual rainfall amounts are anticipated in most parts of Nigeria in 2026 when compared with the long-term average.

Farmers giving their testimonials about NiMet predictions

Keyamo made this known in a keynote address at the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) presentation held in Abuja on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.

The Seasonal Climate Prediction provides comprehensive climate forecasts aimed at guiding agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness across key sectors of the Nigerian economy.

It also presents outlooks on major climate variables, including expected rainfall and temperature patterns across the country.

The 2026 SCP, themed “Climate Science for Sustainable Development,” outlines significant variations in rainfall onset, cessation, duration, and intensity across states.

According to the prediction, early onset of rainfall is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States, while a late onset is anticipated in Borno State.

Rainfall cessation is projected to be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States. However, a delayed end of the rainy season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States.

NiMet further predicts a longer-than-normal rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba States. In contrast, parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are expected to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.

In terms of rainfall volume, above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall is projected for parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States.

For the March–May period, severe dry spells exceeding 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun States. Moderate dry spells are expected over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta States, and parts of Kogi and Kwara States.

During the June–July–August season, NiMet predicts severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.

The Little Dry Season (LDS), commonly referred to as the “August Break,” is expected to commence by late July and is predicted to be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States.

The number of days with little or no rainfall during this period is projected to range between 28 and 40 days. A moderate LDS effect is expected over Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo States.

NiMet also forecasts that both daytime and nighttime temperatures will be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May 2026.

The Minister cautioned farmers and others engaged in rain-fed agriculture and rainfall-dependent activities to adhere strictly to the predicted onset dates contained in the SCP or seek guidance directly from NiMet to avoid losses from premature cultivation.

Goodwill messages were delivered at the event by the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development and NiMet’s international partners, including the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Prof. Celeste Saulo.

Members of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria also gave testimonials in various Nigerian languages, highlighting the effectiveness of NiMet’s SCP in improving agricultural outcomes.

As NiMet marked 140 years of service to Nigeria, past Directors-General of the agency were recognised for their contributions.

The highlight of the event was the official launch of the 2026 SCP report by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, supported by the Director-General of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike, alongside key stakeholders.