Delay Looms in 2026 Budget Presentation …Senate demands 2024 budget performance report, sets expectations for 2025

By Iyojo Ameh

Strong indications emerged on Thursday in the Senate that the presentation of the 2026 fiscal year budget proposals by President Bola Tinubu to the National Assembly may not take place anytime soon.

This follows a directive by the Senate, through its Committee on Finance, instructing the managers of the nation’s economy to, within two weeks, submit a documented performance report on the implementation of the 2024 budget and projections for the capital component of the 2025 budget.

Chairman of the Committee, Senator Mohammed Sani Musa (Niger East), issued the directive after a closed-door meeting that lasted about one and a half hours with the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun; Accountant General of the Federation, Samsudeen Ogunjimi; and Director-General of the Budget Office, Tanimu Yakubu.

According to him, the committee resolved that the presentation of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2026–2029 fiscal years can only proceed after the submission of the requested reports on October 23.

He stated:

> “We have seen the position of the 2024 budget and that of the 2025 budget, and our expectations are for the ministry to, as a matter of urgency, present the MTEF for 2026 to 2029. The minister has briefed us, and we have collectively agreed that while progress has been made, more still needs to be achieved.

> “We heard from the Accountant General and the Director of Budgets about the current state of budget implementation — the payments released, warrants signed, and authorities issued for expenditure under the 2025 capital projects.

> “We all agreed progress is being made, and we expect that with Mr. President’s recent letter to the National Assembly seeking additional loan approvals, the 2025 budget will receive adequate support.

> “However, we require documented evidence of the 2024 budget performance and expectations for 2025 before discussions on the 2026 MTEF can commence.

> “The Honourable Minister of Finance has agreed to provide the progress report, and we will reconvene on October 23.”

Before the closed-door session, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, told the committee that implementation of the capital component of the 2024 budget was recording high performance, and that positive progress was expected for 2025 as well.

However, the Director-General of the Budget Office offered a contrasting view, stating that the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years have been turbulent due to several unmet assumptions underlying both budgets.

He said:

> “We have indeed had a turbulent year — one in which most of the assumptions underpinning the 2024 and 2025 budgets turned out differently from projections.

> “Oil revenue, projected at $75 per barrel, fell short by between $10 and $15 due to global price fluctuations. Inflation also rose beyond expectations, driving up borrowing costs and debt service obligations, which significantly exceeded targets.

> “Additionally, the unforeseen fiscal implications of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2022 have worsened the situation.

> “Under the Act, 30% of gross oil revenue and 30% of oil and gas profits are retained for upstream operations, while the Federal Government bears the NNPC’s operating costs. This has reduced allocations to the Federation Account by nearly 70% of what used to accrue.

> “Furthermore, crude oil output has been lower than projected in the MTEF approved by the National Assembly.”