Rising tensions between the US and Iran spark fears of medicine shortages and higher drug prices in Nigeria

Stakeholders in Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector have raised concerns that the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran could lead to shortages of essential medicines by disrupting imports and delaying the supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients needed for local production.

They warned that if the crisis persists, it could push up the cost of medicines and medical consumables across the country.
According to them, although local drug manufacturers are currently absorbing increasing production costs, ongoing disruptions in global supply chains, rising oil prices, and foreign exchange pressures may soon impact both the availability and affordability of essential medicines.
In separate interviews, the stakeholders agreed that beyond price hikes, the more serious threat posed by the conflict is the possible disruption in supply, which could restrict access to vital medicines for Nigerians.
The US-Iran conflict, now in its 18th day, has intensified with attacks including strikes on Tehran and its regional allies, as reported by international news agencies.
The crisis began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran following weeks of military buildup and threats from President Trump. Major strikes targeted Iranian military assets and top leadership, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Subsequently, Tehran’s Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor. Iran responded by targeting US military installations and key infrastructure in Gulf states. The conflict has reportedly claimed over 1,400 lives, most of them in Iran.
Earlier, The PUNCH reported that the worsening Iran-US conflict could deepen Nigeria’s health funding challenges, putting critical programmes such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, immunisation, and maternal health at risk due to possible funding cuts.
The report indicated that as the conflict drains global resources, financial support to low- and middle-income countries like Nigeria could decline, further straining healthcare systems.
Experts also noted that disruptions in the Middle East could hinder drug imports from China and India, raising costs while funding continues to shrink.
Currently, patients are already facing rising drug prices due to economic challenges, naira depreciation, reliance on imports, and the exit of multinational pharmaceutical companies.
Data from the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control shows that Nigeria imports about 70 per cent of its essential medicines, leaving only around 30 per cent to local production for a population exceeding 230 million.
Chairman of the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Group of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Oluwatosin Jolayemi, said the immediate impact of the conflict on drug prices may be limited, as manufacturers are trying to cushion rising logistics and energy costs.
“It will affect logistics costs, whether for imported APIs or local transportation. However, I don’t think the impact will be as significant as suggested. It may be slight,” he said.
Jolayemi added that he was not aware of any manufacturer increasing prices due to the crisis, noting that producers often absorb such shocks instead of transferring them to consumers.
“As it stands, I am not aware of any local manufacturer that has raised prices because of the situation. Most manufacturers absorb the impact,” he stated.
However, he cautioned that prolonged disruption in global shipping routes, especially those tied to APIs from India and China, could result in delays and shortages.
“If the war continues, prices will certainly rise. But more concerning than price increases is the potential scarcity,” he said, estimating possible increases of between five and 10 per cent.
Similarly, President of the Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria, Aliyu Tanko, said Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported medicines makes it highly vulnerable to global disruptions.
“Many medicines or their active ingredients come from India and China and are transported through global routes that could be affected by instability in the Middle East. Prolonged tensions could disrupt logistics, delay supplies, and increase import costs,” he explained.
Tanko noted that early signs of rising costs are already visible, driven by higher fuel prices, shipping risks, and foreign exchange fluctuations.
“Medicine pricing in Nigeria is highly sensitive to logistics, fuel costs, exchange rates, and import expenses,” he said, warning that further disruptions could make price increases unavoidable, especially for drugs used to treat chronic conditions.
He added that increased freight, insurance, and logistics costs linked to the conflict would ultimately affect retail prices.
Also speaking, National Chairman of the Association of Community Pharmacists of Nigeria, Ambrose Ezeh, said rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions are already pushing up the cost of pharmaceutical production and distribution.
He warned that Nigeria’s dependence on imported medicines could worsen the situation, potentially leading to scarcity.
“About 70 per cent of drugs used in Nigeria are imported. If supply chains are disrupted, available drugs will become more expensive, and some may no longer be accessible,” he said.
Ezeh noted that while widespread price increases may not yet be evident, adjustments are already happening within distribution channels, particularly among wholesalers and retailers.
He linked the trend to foreign exchange volatility, explaining that a stronger dollar raises the cost of importing medicines and raw materials.
“If the conflict continues, drug prices will keep rising,” he warned.
Stakeholders urged the Federal Government to take proactive measures, including expanding local pharmaceutical manufacturing to reduce dependence on imports.
They also called for strengthening regional health systems, including empowering institutions like the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention to coordinate emergency responses.
According to them, establishing regional stockpiles of vaccines, antibiotics, and essential medicines would help maintain healthcare delivery during global crises, while investment in laboratory capacity, surveillance systems, and emergency response teams should be prioritised.
Pharmacists further explained that delays in importing active pharmaceutical ingredients could severely impact drug production, as APIs are the key components used to manufacture medicines in various forms.
They lamented that most APIs used in Nigeria are sourced from China and India.
Former President of the Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria, Olumide Akintayo, warned that such disruptions could worsen drug prices and expose Nigeria’s weak manufacturing capacity.
He said Nigeria is far from achieving self-sufficiency in API production, attributing this to poor government support and weak policy implementation.
“Government is not yet serious. Every serious country places drug matters on the exclusive list to ensure proper control, but Nigeria has not achieved that,” he said.
Akintayo added that despite lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, Nigeria has failed to build a resilient pharmaceutical system.
“After COVID, a proactive government would have ensured we no longer depend almost entirely on imports. But that has not happened,” he said.
He also noted that the pharmaceutical sector contributes less than 0.02 per cent to Nigeria’s GDP, compared to about five per cent in countries like India and China.
Akintayo warned that rising energy costs and delays in raw material imports would drive drug prices higher.
“Drug prices will rise again. With increasing energy costs, the burden will fall on consumers,” he said.
He called for greater government investment and strategic support to strengthen local manufacturing and improve healthcare delivery.
Also, former National Chairman of the Association of Community Pharmacists of Nigeria, Adewale Oladigbolu, warned that prolonged conflict could worsen access to medicines due to rising costs and supply disruptions.
He stressed that Nigeria’s reliance on imports makes it highly vulnerable, noting that most APIs are sourced from India and China.
“If the war persists, medicine logistics will be affected, leading to scarcity and higher prices,” he said.
Oladigbolu added that rising drug costs, combined with increasing energy prices, would put more financial pressure on households.
“It means people will spend more on healthcare and have less disposable income,” he said.
He warned that higher costs could delay healthcare seeking, leading to complications and poorer health outcomes.
“If APIs are not available, drugs will be scarce. If they are more expensive, drug prices will increase,” he added.
Similarly, Adewale Adenugba, immediate past chairman of PSN in Ogun State, said delays in API imports would weaken Nigeria’s manufacturing capacity.
“The US-Iran conflict is disrupting global pharmaceutical supply chains, increasing production costs and weakening Nigeria’s manufacturing capacity, which relies heavily on imports,” he said.
He noted that the likely consequences include higher drug prices, scarcity of essential medicines, and increased public health risks.
Adenugba stressed that the situation underscores the need for Nigeria to invest in local pharmaceutical production and build resilient supply chains.
Also, Olumide Obube, former vice chairman of PSN in Ogun State, said the crisis highlights the risks of Nigeria’s dependence on imports.
“Any disruption in API logistics will expose the fragility of global supply chains and directly impact Nigeria through higher production costs and reduced manufacturing capacity, leading to shortages and healthcare challenges,” he said.
He added that despite the risks, the situation presents an opportunity for Nigeria to develop a more self-sufficient and resilient pharmaceutical sector.