CRMI Raises Alarm Over Global Oil Risks as UAE Exits OPEC

The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has warned of emerging geo-economic risks following the decision of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective May 1, 2026.

In a policy advisory issued by its Registrar and Chief Executive Officer, Mr.

Victor Olannye, the institute described the development as a major shift in global oil governance with far-reaching implications for energy markets and national economies.

According to Olannye, the UAE’s exit could trigger increased oil price volatility,
geopolitical tensions, and disruptions across global energy supply chains, urging both public and private sector stakeholders to urgently reassess their risk management strategies.

“This landmark development signals a significant shift in global oil governance,” he said, adding that institutions must strengthen resilience in anticipation of potential shocks.

The CRMI identified key risks arising from the development to include a possible breakdown in OPEC’s cohesion, heightened oil price instability, geopolitical uncertainty, and the risk of other member states following suit.

For Nigeria, the institute noted a mix of opportunities and vulnerabilities. While the country could benefit from increased production flexibility, expanded market share, and improved revenue prospects, it also faces exposure to price volatility, reduced supply coordination, intensified competition, and fiscal uncertainty.

The institute issued specific directives to stakeholders across sectors. Corporate organisations were advised to strengthen risk management frameworks, adopt dynamic hedging strategies, and diversify business operations.

Financial institutions and investors were urged to reassess energy-related risks, improve portfolio diversification, and enhance transparency in risk disclosures.

For policymakers, CRMI recommended strengthening fiscal buffers, accelerating economic diversification, and promoting a transition toward renewable energy sources to reduce dependence on oil revenues.

It also called on individual risk professionals to build capacity in geopolitical risk analysis, energy economics, and predictive analytics to better navigate the evolving global landscape.

The institute warned that the UAE’s exit could lead to broader structural changes, including fragmentation of global oil governance, a shift toward market-driven pricing mechanisms, and a faster transition to alternative energy sources.

CRMI urged stakeholders to take proactive steps to reposition their strategies in response to the changing geo-economic environment.